Post by account_disabled on Feb 27, 2024 5:29:48 GMT -5
Let's imagine the radiator of a house. Through them it also heats the air in the room, but even after turning off the boiler, hot water continues to circulate through the system. Even though the radiator is cooling down, its stored heat continues to heat the room. Even if people around the world stop burning polluting fuels, the stored heat would continue to warm the atmosphere. Can we stop global warming? And how quickly so that future generations can enjoy the necessary resources.
The climate crisis is happening right now. International organizations such as the UN and NGOs warn of irreversible damage to the planet. And if there are immediate actions, how quickly would they show their effect on the environmental impact?
decarbonization
According to heat continuing in the atmosphere is known as committed warming.
Emerging research is refining scientists' understanding of how Chinese American Phone Number List Earth's global warming will affect the climate. Where we once thought it would take 40 years or more for global temperatures to peak, once humans stopped warming the planet. However, recent research suggests that the temperature could peak in about 10 years .
But that does not mean that the planet will return to its pre-industrial climate or that we will avoid disruptive effects such as sea level rise.
How understanding of global warming has changed
Richard Rood, professor of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, explains that historically the first climate models represented only the atmosphere and were very simplified. Over the years, scientists added oceans , land, ice sheets, chemistry, and biology.
Current models can more explicitly represent the behavior of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. That allows science to better separate warming due to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the role of heat stored in the ocean.
global warming
Thinking about our radiator analogy, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere keep the boiler burning, keeping the energy close to the surface and raising the temperature. Heat accumulates and is stored, above all, in the oceans , which assume the role of radiators. Heat is distributed around the world through climate and ocean currents.
The current understanding is that if all additional warming of the planet caused by humans were eliminated, a plausible outcome is that the Earth would reach peak global surface air temperatures in more than 10 years rather than 40 . The above estimate of 40 years or more has been widely used over the years.
It's important to note that this is just the peak, when temperatures begin to stabilize, not the start of a rapid cooling or a reversal of climate change.
It's too late?
For Rood, there is enough uncertainty to justify caution in exaggerating the importance of the new research results.
Global surface air temperature is, metaphorically, the temperature in the “room” and is not the best measure of climate change. The concept of instantly cutting off man-made warming is also idealized and completely unrealistic; Doing so would involve much more than simply ending the use of fossil fuels, including widespread changes to agriculture, and only helps illustrate how parts of the climate would behave.
extreme temperatures
Even if air temperatures peaked and stabilized, “ committed ice melt ,” “committed sea level rise,” and many other terrestrial and biological trends would continue to evolve from accumulated heat. Some of these could, in fact, cause a release of carbon dioxide and methane , especially from the Arctic and other high-latitude reservoirs that are currently frozen .
For these and other reasons, it is important to consider how far into the future studies like this one look.
Oceans in the future
The oceans will continue to store heat and exchange it with the atmosphere. Even if emissions stopped, the excess heat that has been accumulating in the ocean since pre-industrial times would influence the climate for another 100 years or more.
The climate crisis is happening right now. International organizations such as the UN and NGOs warn of irreversible damage to the planet. And if there are immediate actions, how quickly would they show their effect on the environmental impact?
decarbonization
According to heat continuing in the atmosphere is known as committed warming.
Emerging research is refining scientists' understanding of how Chinese American Phone Number List Earth's global warming will affect the climate. Where we once thought it would take 40 years or more for global temperatures to peak, once humans stopped warming the planet. However, recent research suggests that the temperature could peak in about 10 years .
But that does not mean that the planet will return to its pre-industrial climate or that we will avoid disruptive effects such as sea level rise.
How understanding of global warming has changed
Richard Rood, professor of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, explains that historically the first climate models represented only the atmosphere and were very simplified. Over the years, scientists added oceans , land, ice sheets, chemistry, and biology.
Current models can more explicitly represent the behavior of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. That allows science to better separate warming due to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the role of heat stored in the ocean.
global warming
Thinking about our radiator analogy, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere keep the boiler burning, keeping the energy close to the surface and raising the temperature. Heat accumulates and is stored, above all, in the oceans , which assume the role of radiators. Heat is distributed around the world through climate and ocean currents.
The current understanding is that if all additional warming of the planet caused by humans were eliminated, a plausible outcome is that the Earth would reach peak global surface air temperatures in more than 10 years rather than 40 . The above estimate of 40 years or more has been widely used over the years.
It's important to note that this is just the peak, when temperatures begin to stabilize, not the start of a rapid cooling or a reversal of climate change.
It's too late?
For Rood, there is enough uncertainty to justify caution in exaggerating the importance of the new research results.
Global surface air temperature is, metaphorically, the temperature in the “room” and is not the best measure of climate change. The concept of instantly cutting off man-made warming is also idealized and completely unrealistic; Doing so would involve much more than simply ending the use of fossil fuels, including widespread changes to agriculture, and only helps illustrate how parts of the climate would behave.
extreme temperatures
Even if air temperatures peaked and stabilized, “ committed ice melt ,” “committed sea level rise,” and many other terrestrial and biological trends would continue to evolve from accumulated heat. Some of these could, in fact, cause a release of carbon dioxide and methane , especially from the Arctic and other high-latitude reservoirs that are currently frozen .
For these and other reasons, it is important to consider how far into the future studies like this one look.
Oceans in the future
The oceans will continue to store heat and exchange it with the atmosphere. Even if emissions stopped, the excess heat that has been accumulating in the ocean since pre-industrial times would influence the climate for another 100 years or more.